Opinion - Analysis Of An Election

(The pictures captured below are results from CNN.)


The election for governor in Florida was a suprise - not in who won, but how close the election results were.

In the final tally Scott won by a mere 80,000 votes - pretty darned close.

Florida, while Crist was in office as governor, lost over 800,000 jobs. During Scott's "reign" as governor Florida's jobs were increased by some 600,000 jobs. Agree with Scott's politics or not, Scott set forth a platform and basically "did what he said he'd do". To be fair, Scott had his shortcomings as well - at least in our opinion.

Now, to our way of looking at things this was truly a choice of the "lesser of two evils". But, it was a clear choice - positive performance counts.

As election night wore on we really wondered why such a close race. After all, as I said, performace counts - Scott had demonstrated positive performace, Crist not so much (actually, negative performance).

So, the day after the election I was searching for some reason(s) for the close race.

What I found said much. Let's look at the voting demographics.

First, look at the votes by gender:

Nothing too out of the ordinary here - more men went for Scott, more women went for Crist. But, the numbers show pretty much a "wash".

Now, next is where separation starts to show up:

An expanded view of the above chart offeres more insight:

As one can see, blacks voted for the Democratic candidate in a vastly greater percentage than did whites. However, look at this:

Clearly, in large percentages, whites voted for Scott and non-whites voted for Crist. But, the demographics show a much larger percentage of whites reside in Florida. So, even though the minority vote was in favor of Crist, it really wasn't a determining factor.

Even so, why do minorities seem to favor the Democrat - (not just in Florida, but across the board)? Neither candidate in Florida was perceived as being "anti-anybody" or "pro-anybody", race wise. The only difference here, it seemed, was that Scott is a Republican and Crist was a Republican, changed to an Independent, then changed (yet again) to being a Democrat. And, perhaps more important, Crist is an ardent supporter of Obama and his policies; Not so for Scott.

Could that be it? Republicans try and promote free enterprise as the means of bettering one's condition in life where the Democrats try and promote the the government will "take care of you". There had to be more to it than just that - not "every" minority is on the "dole".

But, consider - clearly 50% of the people in our country don't pay income tax. A goodly portion of this 50% are minorities. This may not be "pretty", but it is pretty much the case. Could it be that minorities look to the political influence that will help those more like themsleves? Or, is this "a" reason why minorities vote with the Democratic party? Could be - I don't really know.

OK. So, let's look at the situation by age:

First, look at the age demographics of Florida; then the voting distribution by age:

Now, the above looks really strange. On average people below the age of 65 went for Crist in a fairly large way; over 65 they went for Scott. Why would that be?

The only way I can offer any potentials here is to do some "generalizations" - and, generalizations, of course, don't account for individuals. So be it.

People over 65, let's call them "seniors", grew up with a culture quite different than those much younger. What used to be called "the protestant work ethic" (probably not a politically correct term these days) seems to have been disappearing with each generation coming after the seniors' generation. Seniors seem to be generally better off financially than their children or their grandchildren.

Seniors grew up with a belief that the US Constitution was THE law of the land, and a knowledge that SOMEONE had to untimately pay for social programs. The younger the demographic the more is seen a belief that the US Constitution is a set of "guidelines" only. And, these younger people truly believe that the "rich" owe them the quality of life that seniors actually earned.

These new beliefs, mainly, are fostered by the Democratic party. And, there is another thing.

Seniors have the time and interest to do research on any and all claims made by politicians. Younger people, what with the economy being what it is, have neither the time nor the interest.

Look at the above data in a graph -

From the graph it clearly shows that as one ages one progresses from voting with the Democratic party to voting with the Republican party. Curious, no?! Or, as the old saying goes, "With age comes wisdom!" - at least in Florida anyway.